Luck factor in shows?

Has anyone else faced issues when showing their foundations? It seems to me the horses that are about to reach the next grade are doing strangely poorly. For example a horse of mine I've been trying to hand show anywhere from 240-249 stats (he has 52 nss and full tack) has placed last or close to last in most shows while the placed horses have had 20+ less stats. Can the luck factor really be that big? I thought I understood showing but I'm having a hard time trying to figure this out.

  

Strange. I get exactly the opposite impression from my foundies. As long as they have below 55nss, they seem to be winning all the time. I hardly send them to riding school because most of them win as soon as they reach e.g. 155, 210, 258, 312, etc.

Is your tack full upgraded? 

Yes, the tack is fully upgraded.

Hopefully we aren't looking at another showing bug. 

I am glad that I havent been the ONLY one experiancing this issue.... Yep I have been experiencing the same thing lately.... Tack is fully upgraded on all my show horses so I am not sure what the issue is exactly with the showing. I agree with Olympia; I hope its not another show bug..... 

What training level is the horse at? What are NSS and training level of the horses that beat it?

The training level of the horse is 3. The horses that beat him were at level 1-2 with NSS of 51-57 (based on the show results from today).

What order did you feed, treat, train, and show?

It varied from day to day, either feed-treat-show-train or show-feed-treat-train. Do you think this could somehow affect the show results? I know I sometimes skipped brushing and mucking out because I was in a hurry, but since the happiness was at 100%, I didn't think it would matter. Sadly I don't have record of this to compare it with show performance but it seems like the issue was there already before.

That could have some affect. Show entries are based on stats at the time of entry. So anything your horse gained after entering (additional stats, training, etc.) wouldn't have counted for those shows.

In general it's best to show last--with the exception being adding a stat boost or treats if it's going to push your horse past the level. At that point, enter at the top and then stat boost or treat that horse. I always train, check levels (anyone within 2 pts of the top gets entered in shows before caring), stat boost, treat, then show. 

I'm not sure how much mucking, etc. affects. Especially with happiness at 100%.

Also, the luck factor is higher the lower the training level. As training increases horses become more consistent/predictable in themselves, so it begins to ride more on if an opposing horse has a big luck boost at times.

Sonoma is right on all accounts. The only other things to note is that for dressage horses grooming is taken into account, so caring first is preferable. 

From a 2018 News post:
"A Score is generated for horses when they are first entered in shows - it's always a good idea to care for your horses before you enter shows rather than after.

1. Stats come first. Main stats are prioritised, secondary stats contribute a little. For Dressage, grooming and age contributes as Dressage is scored on presentation as well.
2. Specialty bonus is added to the score - if the horse is entered in the same type of show as its specialty, it gets a small boost.
3. Care - water, hunger, grooming, stall cleaned, and treating each add a small bonus to the score.
4. Tack contributions are added next.
5. Luck is calculated based on training level. At low level showing this can have a massive impact on show scores, but as horses reach higher stats and higher training level it becomes almost a non-issue."

I have a couple of active foundations, and they are both doing well when they reach the 50% progression for next level. One is 63 NSS so not so good for showing, and still does more or less well. I always groom and feed, train and show, this order.

Oh I had this same thing. Especially with a foundie I just bought:
https://www.equiverse.com/show-results.php?hid=968986

Also in N3 dressage. 55nss and at 240-249 stats losing from horses at 200-220, was extremely weird.
Finally had her at 249 stats and enterred her for two days at once, the first ten went okay, then the second 10 she didn't even place, while she was over 250 stats already.

Currently taking a break from showing actually, as this was one of the thing that doesn't really motivate, just like the reletively small amount of stats gained from showing compaired to riding school (and seeing the extra time that goes into showing...)

But totally have the exact same expierence as you; up in their class, good nss and upgraded tack, but not getting the results it should.