Let's figure out the breeding formula [Take 2]

I'm having another go at figuring out the breeding formula so that I can create a foal stat prediction calculator for everyone to use, and this time I think I'm on the right track. I've documented a number of breedings so far, and got every one exactly right, but need some more data to ensure it works in every possible scenario. So I was hoping you guys could help me with this by sharing your breeding records.

What I need from you:
- stats of the sire and dam at the time of breeding
- discipline of the sire and dam
- base stats of the sire and dam (found on the horse page next to the private notes)
- birth stats and base stats of their foal

Just copy and paste all the parents' individual stats (i.e. STR, SPD, etc) and other details into a post here when you breed them, then do the same with their foal when it's born.
Note that only a horse's owner can see a horse's base stats, so if you're breeding to outside studs/broods you'll have to message the owner to get these details. Also, it is very important that I know the exact parent stats when they're bred, not later, when their stats have increased further, as this will distort my results and create errors.

I am mostly sorted for more typical types of breedings, although certainly won't reject any more, so I am mainly after results from the following:
- breedings between horses in different disciplines that share 1 common discipline-specific stat, i.e. any of these:
------ Dressage x Endurance
------ Dressage x Show Jumping
------ Dressage x Western
------ Driving x Endurance
------ Driving x Racing
------ Endurance x Racing
------ Endurance x Western
------ Racing x Show Jumping
------ Racing x Western
------ Show Jumping x Western
- breedings between horses with high non-discipline stats (greater than 50 per stat)

Thanks in advance!

Last edited on 2017-04-16 at 20:15:24 by UlyssesBlue

Got 4 weeks before my next group of breeding's. :3 Like around 12+ pairs.

Will post my data when it's time. :)

I missed this the first time around so I'm excited to participate now!

Sire stats at breeding:
STR: 6
SPD: 544
AGI: 20
INT: 560
END: 6

Dam stats at breeding:
STR: 4
SPD: 418
AGI: 7
INT: 427
END: 6

Both are Western.

Sire base stats:
STR: 4
SPD: 95
AGI: 10
INT: 89
END: 5

Dam base stats:
STR: 4
SPD: 86
AGI: 7
INT: 91
END: 6

Foal base stats:
STR: 4
SPD: 192
AGI: 9
INT: 195
END: 5

Foal birth stats:
STR: 4
SPD: 285
AGI: 10
INT: 291
END: 5

The calculator got it exactly correct! Great job Ulysses!

Last edited on 2017-04-25 at 17:55:47 by SueHeck

I'll have 16 pairs being bred in two weeks (and then again in the weeks following). I'll make sure to save their info for you. :)

I'll slowly try to update my posts in the old thread to include the base stats. It'll take a while, but I'll try to get them all updated. :)

I did want to mention something I'd noticed about the base stats. I'm not positive how accurate they are for horses that were born on the old incarnation of the game. It may not matter for your calculations, but I think there's some distortion when it comes to horses that were imported, because stat inheritance/gain/etc are all so functionally different now.

I've noticed that as well. The base stats of imports do seem unusually low, but I've already included some in my calculations so far and can reliably predict their foals, so if there is an issue it will be with the way they were imported, and not with the way they breed.

Update

I've had a great response to this and have been able to test several more types of breedings, and so far they've all worked. I'm now confident that most types of breedings will be accurately predicted by my calculator. The only ones I'm unsure about are certain types of cross-discipline breedings, which I've listed in my first post, so if you've got any of these breedings happening, or are willing to do a test breeding for me, I am very keen to hear from you.

In other news, I've finished coding up the foal stat calculator, so it's ready to go online as soon as I finish testing it. I may need to tweak it a bit if I get some unexpected results from the last breeding tests, but that's all that it'll need. I'm expecting a fully functional foal stat calculator to be online within a week or two. Less if I give into temptation and throw some credits at all my own test breedings.

For those wondering about the formula to calculate the stats, at this stage I can confirm that the contributing factors are each parent's base stats, stats at the time of breeding, and discipline. Birth stats are not a factor, so there's no need to record these except for your own curiosity, and there's definitely no random factor involved. Base stats are weighted much more strongly than the rest of the stats, and discipline-specific stats can sometimes get a small bonus. Once all my tests are complete and the calculator's online, I'll post a formula.

Thanks again for all your help so far. We're nearly there!

in the interest of science (haha) i've got endurance mustang stallions i could donate a few foals from if anyone has racing, western, or dressage mustang mares :)

Update

It lives!!! IT LIVES!!!!!!

Foal Stat Calculator

Beta version is online. Please run your breeding records through it and compare what it predicts to what you actually got, and let me know if there's any discrepancies.

I have now been able to test it with every conceivable type of breeding, and it worked for all of them, so I'm confident it'll be fine, but it can't hurt to have some extra testing while I put together the little breeding guide I promised you, which will explain the formulas, etc.

Awesome! Thanks so much for putting this together!

omg this is amazingggggggg!
thank you for doing all this work! i cant wait for the write up :D

The write up can be found here. :)

Let me know if anything's unclear, or at least could be worded better.